Himalaya Harbinger, Rudrapur Bureau
After years of waging a proxy war against its sworn enemy Israel, Iran on October 1 escalated its offensive by launching a massive barrage of around 200 missiles targeting the Jewish nation.
The missile barrage, which even struck the flagship Israeli metropolis of Tel Aviv, marked the largest such assault on the country, encircled by hostile neighbouring states and infiltrated by Iranian-backed non-state proxies.
The unprecedented attack, where Iran claimed that 90% of its missiles hit Israel, raised critical questions about the efficacy of Israel’s famed aerial defence systems, including the Iron Dome, that the world swears by.
Not just for Israel, but also for other nations, including India, which faces its own set of geopolitical threats from next-door adversaries, the missile attack rang as a stark warning.
Thus, the ballistic missile attack on Israel serves as an ideal moment to assess the magnitude of the Iranian assault, the effectiveness of Israel’s air defence systems, and how India’s defence capabilities measure up against such threats.
As India navigates its own complex landscape, this incident raises pressing questions. Does India possess the necessary defence systems to fend off an Israel-like missile attack, and how prepared is the nation to confront such challenges?
Iran’s missile barrage, consisting of approximately 180 ballistic missiles, was a retaliatory measure for Israel’s recent elimination of key ‘axis’ leaders, including Hezbollah boss Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
The attack targeted several Israeli military installations and the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence agency, although the majority of the missiles were intercepted by Israel’s advanced defence systems, according to the Israeli military.
Iran has thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles with a variety of ranges in its arsenal. In the October 1 offensive, Iran primarily launched four distinct types of medium-range ballistic missiles on Israel, according to Iran’s Fars news agency
However, a CNN report citing military experts said Iran used variants of the Shahab-3 ballistic missile too.
Fattah-2 and Shahab-3 are hypersonic ballistic missiles, which travel five times the speed of sound, which is approximately 6,100 kilometres per hour. The Fatah-2 has a range of 1,500 km.
As hypersonic missiles can manoeuvre at such high speed while gliding through the earth’s atmosphere, it becomes extremely difficult for air-defences to shoot them down.
In addition to their speed, they can deliver large payloads, including nuclear, chemical, or conventional warheads, over long distances with high speed and destructive power.
Israel’s aerial defence system, one of the most advanced in the world, was designed to shield it from ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. It faced a tough test in the face of the recent Iranian attack.
What was tougher to intercept, was the missiles diving towards their targets at hypersonic speed. Perhaps that explains why some of the Iranian missiles made an impact on their intended targets and their periphery.
To secure its skies, Israel uses a multi-layered air defence system, employing various sophisticated systems including, the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, the Patriot and the variants of the Arrow system. These systems are employed based on the altitudes and distances of the incoming threats.
In the inner layer, the system uses the much-discussed Iron Dome tactical missile defence system that intercepts short-range rockets and artillery shells at ranges of between 4 km to 70 km from the launcher. It has been highly effective in intercepting makeshift missiles from Gaza that had older technologies.
The next layer is secured by David Sling, a mid-range missile defence system capable of intercepting missiles with ranges of 70 to 300 kilometres. It is designed to fill the gap between the Iron Dome and the Arrow systems.
The Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems are deployed to tackle medium- and long-range missiles that can intercept ballistic missiles when they are anywhere up to 2,400km away. The Arrow-3, in particular, is designed to handle the most advanced and long-range threats.
Although primarily an American system, Israel has also integrated the Patriot into its defence network, but in June 2024 the Israel Defence Forces said it would soon retire its Patriot systems.
INDIAN GEOPOLITICAL THEATRE WITH CHINA, PAKISTAN LURKING
Although the comparison might not be an even one, India faces its own share of security challenges from its neighbours, particularly China and Pakistan, both of which possess advanced missile capabilities, including hypersonic missiles.
China’s military modernisation has seen the development of a robust missile arsenal, which could pose a substantial threat to India’s security. China, anyway, has a habit of terrorising the littoral states of the South China Sea, its eastern neighbours.
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China leads the world in developing, testing and deploying hypersonic weapons, said a May 2024 Bloomberg report.
Its hypersonic arsenal includes the DF-17, a medium-range ballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle that has a range of 1,600 kilometres.
Other key Chinese missiles include the DF-21 and DF-26 missiles, which are intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) capable of striking targets deep within Indian territory. The DF-26, in particular, is known for its anti-ship capabilities and can target Indian naval assets.
Beijing also has the DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle, with a range of close to 2,000 kilometres, and the Starry Sky-2, a nuclear capable hypersonic prototype, according to a Voice of America report. These missiles can evade traditional missile defence systems due to their high speed and manoeuvrability.
Beijing also has the DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle, with a range of close to 2,000 kilometres, and the Starry Sky-2, a nuclear capable hypersonic prototype, according to a Voice of America report. These missiles can evade traditional missile defence systems due to their high speed and manoeuvrability.
To India’s west is Pakistan, which has fought four wars with it. Pakistan’s missile arsenal could also be a concern for India, given the historical tensions between the two nations. Key Pakistani missile systems include, the Babur cruise missile, which is a surface-to-surface cruise missile with a range of over 700 kilometres, capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear warheads.
Ghauri and Shaheen ballistic missiles with ranges varying from medium- to long-range can target major Indian cities and military installations too. Although Pakistan’s missile capabilities are no match for the Chinese ones, it shares a long border on India’s western border, and its friendly ties with its ‘all-weather-friend’ China, poses a big risk to India.
Given the threats from its neighbours, India has been investing heavily in developing and acquiring advanced anti-missile defence systems, with a mix of both home-grown systems and those of foreign origin.
Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) and Advanced Air Defence (AAD) are India’s indigenous missile defence systems designed to intercept ballistic missiles at different altitudes. The PAD is meant for exo-atmospheric interceptions, while the AAD is for endo-atmospheric interceptions.
The Akash Missile System is a surface-to-air missile system that can intercept aerial targets at ranges up to 30 kilometres. While not specifically designed for ballistic missile defence, it can contribute to the overall air defence capabilities by intercepting slow incoming threats.
The Russian S-400, which is highly effective against a wide range of aerial threats, including ballistic and cruise missiles, is India’s latest purchase to overhaul its aerial security. Three squadrons of the S-400 have been delivered to India so far, and they can engage targets at ranges up to 400 kilometres and at altitudes of up to 30 kilometres.
The burning question of whether the S-400 can intercept and shoot down hypersonic missiles was answered by the Russian Deputy Prime Minister. In a 2023 interview, Denis Manturov, the Russian Deputy PM, claimed that the S-400 and S-500 long-range air defence systems are capable of destroying hypersonic missiles, reported Euratiantimes.com.
In 2021, the Indian Air Force inducted the Barak-8, a medium range surface-to-air-missile (MRSAM) system capable of knocking out aerial threats such as enemy fighter jets, missiles, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles at a range of 70 km. Defence minister Rajnath Singh described the capability as a “game changer” in Indian air defence.
CAN AIR DEFENCE SYSTEMS SHOOT DOWN HYPERSONIC MISSILES?
With the combination of indigenous and acquired modern systems, India’s anti-missile defence system is in the process of being fully integrated. However, as of now, its multi-layered defence approach, similar to Israel’s, where different systems cover different ranges and altitudes, enables comprehensive protection.
Going by the Russian Deputy PM’s statement, the integration of the S-400, which has now been delayed due to the Ukraine-Russia war, would boost India’s existing air defence network against incoming hypersonic threats too. The remaining units of the S-400 are expected to be delivered to India by 2026.
However, that has now not been battle-tested against hypersonic threats yet and what Manturov said must be taken with a pinch of salt. But again, as the Iranians, with a barrage of missiles, some reportedly hypersonic and others supersonic, could easily overwhelm systems as sophisticated as that of Israel.
With hypersonic missiles becoming a threat, the US is trying to build a shield impregnable to hypersonic missiles.
Systems like the US Navy’s Aegis Sea-Based Terminal (SBT) programme, which uses the SM-6 missile, and the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) show promise, according to a report on Germany-based European Security and Defence. The GPI is expected to be ready by 2030.
To conclude, while India has made significant strides in developing and acquiring advanced anti-missile defence systems, the threat landscape from China and Pakistan necessitates continuous improvement and investment. That said, the missiles that were fired at Israel by Iran
It doesn’t mean that any air defence system is foolproof. Even Israel, with a developed, layered and comprehensive air defence, failed to intercept and knock down some of the ballistic missiles. But the Iranian missile attack on Israel serves as a stark reminder of the evolving nature of aerial threats and the importance of robust defence mechanisms, irrespective of the arsenal of its enemy.
